OUR EXPERTISE

Data-Driven Insights for Smarter Justice Solutions

CGL’s Research, Analysis, and Forecasting (RAF) Unit helps justice agencies make smarter, data-driven decisions through cutting-edge research, advanced analytics, and predictive modeling. With a team of criminologists, data scientists, and justice system experts, we provide trusted insights in population forecasting, risk assessment, and program evaluation, giving agencies the information they need to allocate resources effectively, reduce costs, and improve outcomes.

Specializing in comprehensive system analysis and forecasting, the RAF Unit helps agencies understand trends in jail, prison, and community supervision populations to support long-term planning. Using CGL’s proprietary Wizard Simulation model—the most accurate projection tool recognized by the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO)—we provide detailed correctional population forecasts. Our team also develops and validates risk assessment and classification instruments to improve pretrial release decisions, offender supervision, and housing assignments, while conducting program evaluations and compliance reviews to measure effectiveness and ensure agencies meet industry standards.

The RAF Unit combines The Wizard Simulation alongside Power BI, IBM SPSS, ESRI ArcView, and advanced statistical modeling, turning complex data into clear, actionable insights. Our ability to provide geospatial analysis, including crime mapping, enhances data visualization and scenario-based forecasting, helping agencies identify efficiencies, anticipate challenges, and make informed policy decisions that improve overall system performance.

As a key part of CGL’s 360 Approach to Justice, the RAF Unit seamlessly integrates into CGL’s comprehensive service model, ensuring justice agencies have the data and intelligence to improve operations, control costs, and plan for the future with confidence.

Our Benefits

  • Unparalleled Forecasting Accuracy – Ensures precise long-term correctional population projections.
  • Customizable to Local System Dynamics – Models are tailored to reflect sentencing structures, policy changes, and operational realities.
  • Advanced 'What-If' Scenario Planning – Justice leaders can assess the impact of policy changes, legislative reforms, and shifting population trends before making critical decisions.
  • Extensive Track Record – Over 500 models have been developed for 100+ state, local, adult, and juvenile systems across the U.S.

Research, Analysis, and Forecasting (RAF) Unit services include:

  • Confined (Jail, Prison and Juvenile System) Population Analysis and Forecasting
  • Community Supervision (Parole and Probation) Population Analysis and Forecasting
  • Objective Classification System Development, Validation, and Revalidation
  • Pre-Trial Risk Release Instrument Development, Validation, and Revalidation
  • Parole Risk Release Guidelines Development and Revalidation
  • Supervision Risk and Needs Assessment Instruments
  • Court Caseload and Courtroom Usage Analysis and Forecasting
  • Compliance Monitoring Reports
  • Recidivism Analysis
  • Benchmarking
  • Systems Development and Validation
  • Program Evaluation and Outcomes
  • Expert Witness Testimony and Analysis
  • Geospatial Analysis and Mapping
  • Dashboard Development
  • Other Research and Evaluation Areas

STATS

By the Numbers

The detailed work tasks provided within each service are tailored for each client, depending on the desired objectives, on a project-by-project basis.

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Our Team

MEET OUR RESEARCH, ANALYSIS, & FORECASTING EXPERTS

Get to know the team behind the data. CGL’s Research, Analysis, and Forecasting experts are trusted advisors to justice agencies across the country, delivering the insight and clarity needed to make confident, future-focused decisions. With deep expertise in system analysis, population forecasting, and operational modeling, they help clients uncover opportunities, identify challenges, and plan smarter. Driven by impact, our team’s work supports better facilities, stronger systems, and safer, more effective outcomes for the communities they serve.

Meet more of our experts